Brian Stutland of Stutland Equities said on CNBC's Fast Money that investors should look at Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), the companies that were sold on Dell's (NASDAQ: DELL) weakness.
Stutland believes that these stocks were oversold and sees the opportunity to pick them up, but only at the short term. He sees Microsoft (MSFT) at $30, Oracle (ORCL) at $23 and Yahoo! (YHOO) at $16.
MSFT closed at $29.62 and ORCL finished at $22.34. YHOO dropped 1.57% today at $15.38.
Earlier this morning I reported that Goldman Sachs issued a research report to its clients regarding Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO). This story was played up on many websites today and low and behold we have a massive trade in the Jan 2011 contracts not soon after.
One trader sold 20,000 of each the 12.50 put and the 17.50 call, while also purchasing 20,000 20.00/30.00 call spreads. They did this for a total credit of $0.78. This trade allows them to profit it the stock falls between 11.72 and 18.28 or if the stock rallies above 20. They will lose money between 18.28 and 20, however.
Yahoo must keep its share of search above 11% for the next three years, otherwise the Microsoft deal won't add additional profits, says Doug Anmuth of Barcalys.
His key points from the a report he released this week:
The Microsoft partnership would still generate incremental EBITDA for Yahoo! (vs. not having the deal) down to a market share of approximately 11% - 12% in 2012.
Every 100 bps of market share is equal to roughly $60 - $80 million of annual gross revenue and $35 - $50 million of annual EBITDA for Yahoo!.
Our Baseline scenario represents our current estimates and assumes share declines to 16.8% in 2012.
Our Moderate share loss scenario assumes share falls to 14% in 2012 resulting in revenue and EBITDA that is $77 million and $69 million lower than our current projections.
Our Accelerated loss—or worst case—scenario assumes Yahoo!’s share falls from ~18% today to 10% share in 2012, impacting Yahoo!’s total revenue by 6.5% ($427 million) and EBITDA by 13.8% ($317 million) relative to our current estimates, more than offsetting the benefits of the MSFT Partnership. [Which are ~$275 M]
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BloggingStocks: Twitter calls Google (GOOG) a "good role model," but says it isn't ready to rush down the road to advertising.
Nonetheless, an ad-based revenue model is something that cofounder Biz Stone says they "will be looking to do down the line." But, for ... Read more
WFC - Wells Fargo & Co. – Shares of the financial holding company surrendered 1.5% today to stand at $27.88. One investor initiated a sold straddle on WFC in the April 2010 contract. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the April 32 strike for 1.59 apiece in conjunction with the sale of 10,000 now in-the-money puts at the same strike for 5.81 each. The gross premium on the transaction amounts to 7.40 per contract. The investor will retain the full premium if shares settle at $32.00 by expiration. The premium received acts as a buffer against losses in the event that shares swing in either direction away from the $32.00-level. However, the trader will accumulate losses if shares breach the upper breakeven price of $39.40, or if shares decline beneath the lower breakeven point at $24.60, by expiration in April.
IYT - iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which measures the performance of the transportation sector of the U.S. equity market, appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor initiated a bearish put play. Shares of the fund moved 0.5% lower to $70.53 during the session. The trader established a put spread by purchasing 5,000 puts at the December 70 strike for 1.80 each, and by selling the same number of puts at the lower December 65 strike for 40 cents apiece. The net cost of the trade amounts to 1.40 per contract and provides downside protection beneath the breakeven price of $68.60 down to $65.00 through December’s expiration.
RYL - The Ryland Group, Inc. – Shares of homebuilder and mortgage-finance company, Ryland Group, declined nearly 4% this afternoon to stand at $18.86. Investors exchanging options on the stock today spread pessimistic sentiment through to expiration December. Traders sold 10,000 calls at the December 19 strike for an average premium of 1.10 apiece. The full 1.10 premium pocketed by investors is retained in full as long as shares of RYL remain below $19.00 through expiration day. Call-sellers do not seem to expect that shares of Ryland will recover before the start of 2010.
YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – We observed two different option strategies in play on Yahoo this afternoon. A large-volume sold strangle in the January 2011 contract suggests shares are likely to remain stagnant through expiration. The transaction involved the sale…
BloggingStocks: Yahoo! (YHOO) is the latest company that wants to optimize its search results for Twitter. This follows moves by Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) to integrate Twitter data into their search results. Unlike its competitors, however, Yahoo! wants to ... Read more
One obscure way of measuring how efficient a company operates is the amount or sales or revenues that are generated for each employee at the company, also known as the Revenues per Employee Ratio or R/E Ratio. It is also sometimes referred to as the Sales per Employee Ratio or S/E ratio. I've written about the R/E ratio in the past a couple times, but there doesn't appear to be much interest in this metric.
The concept is simple. Let's assume there are two companies in the same industry generating the exact same amount of revenues. But Company A has 1,000 employees and Company B has 10,000 employees. Which company do you think would generate higher net earnings? Which stock do you think would perform better?
Let's take some real life examples, using the technology sector. With only 19,665 employees and raking in $182.95 billion in revenues, Google (GOOG) is by far the top large cap tech company with the highest R/E ratio at $9,303,330 for every employee. And to top things off, the stock is up 79% so far this year. Apple (AAPL) is close behind with an R/E ratio of $5,408,163 and the stock is up an amazing 127% for the year. Then there is Amazon (AMZN) at $2,746,376 per employee. Amazon has a top return year-to-date of 142%.
Now let's look at some of the tech stocks that don't have as high an R/E ratio. Yahoo (YHOO) has a revenue per employee ratio far below the others at $1,646,323 and the stock was only up 24%. Both Dell (DELL) and IBM (IBM) generate almost identical revenues per employee at $410,000 and are up about 49% for the year; not even close to the returns for Apple or Amazon. And Hewlett Packard (HPQ) only has a R/E ratio of $372,866 and has the lower year-to-date return to show for it at 38%.
So next time you are trying to decide which stock you want to buy in a particular industry or sector, take a close look at the R/E ratio.
BloggingStocks: Once upon a time, Mac users could brag they were much safer from malicious electronic attacks. After all, in the days before Google (GOOG), when Microsoft (MSFT) was the only uber-player in town, Windows was the perpetual malware target. Phishers, ... Read more
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